The Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens each opened the 2021 season with an upset loss. Every power in the AFC has entered this season with a fourth-year star in quarterback that fuels every aspect of the offense. But in Week 1, both teams moved away from the bread and butter games that had led to the team’s success.

So … what does that give? What should we do with this?

Overall, there is a historic precedent for NFL offenses starting the season slowly. It takes time to get into a flow, but stats and production are generally leveling off. On average, it takes about four weeks. Is this the story of Buffalo and Baltimore?

Let us look at the bills first. During the 23-16 home loss to the Steelers, offensive coordinator Brian Daboll made up the playing action on just 14% of passing plays – that’s less than half of last season’s average ( 30.4%). As usual, however, there is additional context to consider. In the game’s early discs, negative plays (“mistakes” like false starts and penalties) kept Buffalo from selling the potential of its racing game, which inherently undermined the power of the action game. While Josh Allen himself is always a rushed threat, the less favorable the distance, the less the defense has to respect the run. Ultimately, according to Next Gen Stats, this led to Allen being pressured on 18 of 54 dropbacks, which tied the quarterback’s career high for most dropbacks under pressure in a game. While under pressure in the first half, Allen made 4 of 7 throws for 51 yards while taking a sack. In the second half, he was just 1 of 8 for 5 yards, taking two sacks in the process. The other key part of Allen’s typical production is his ability to perform running passes. While on the run in 2020, he had a 53.2 completion percentage with eight touchdowns (tied for third) and no interceptions, according to Next Generation stats. While on the run against the Steelers, he only managed 1 of 4 for 14 yards.

Bottom line: no, now is not the time to panic in Buffalo. It’s never fun to lose a match, but the timing and pace – especially on the early scripted pieces – should improve, given the Bills’ continuity. The Steelers’ defense, especially up front, is very likely to end the season as a top unit by share of victory. Not to mention that Allen is still averaging 9.9 aerial yards per attempt, completing 7 of 8 passes over 10 yards for 108 yards and a touchdown. The talented quarterback – and his offense – should be doing very well.

The story is not quite the same in Baltimore. Injuries are sadly a part of every NFL season, but the Ravens have had a really tough hand on that front before. Since Lamar Jackson took the reins from Joe Flacco in the middle of his rookie season, Baltimore’s offense has strongly relied on ground play to propel the offense. But the Ravens’ backfield and offensive line have already been eaten up by the injury bug, with a few setbacks coming just days before the start of the season. As a result, offensive coordinator Greg Roman had to dramatically change the game plan in a short period of time. And that led to Baltimore ditching the option of reading in Sin City. According to Pro Football Focus, the Ravens gained 1,335 yards and eight touchdowns on 183 rushes using the play option in 2020. That equated to 7.3 yards per pop. In Week 1, the Ravens only attempted one play with a read option in the first half. For the game, PFF recorded 11 total carries for 49 yards (an average of 4.5 yards) on playable plays. This isn’t a blow to Ty’Son Williams, who has played the most snaps (34 of 67) of any Baltimore following season-ending injuries to JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill . Instead, it suggests that with the personnel changes, Roman believed other tactics would work better. Maybe he just didn’t get the looks, confrontations, or staff situations he hoped for.

The problem here is that with so many injury-related changes – and critical names dotting every injury report – it’s unclear how long it will take circumstances and personnel to stabilize enough for the Ravens’ offense to dictate. reliably the pace of matches. Again, this was just a game, so it’s not a five-alarm fire yet. But there is certainly a big yellow flag flying over Baltimore.