New California Congressional Card Boosts Democrats
Unlike other states where legislatures are drawing new lines, California has a Redistribution Commission made up of five Democrats, five Republicans, and four Independents. But a redistribution-focused branch of the Republican Party denounced the new borders as being stacked in favor of Democrats and suggested the commission was taking sides.
“California’s ‘independent’ redistricting commission produces extremely twisted congressional lines that rival the extreme gerrymanders of Illinois and Maryland,” National Republican Redistricting Trust executive director Adam Kincaid said in a statement. “These new draft maps ignore California communities in a desperate attempt to try to save the majority of Nancy Pelosi.”
Despite California’s predominantly Democratic electorate, the state will be a hub of activity mid-term as it includes several seats that have shifted in recent cycles. In 2020, Republicans reclaimed four of the seven House seats Democrats transferred to their column in 2018.
Several Republican incumbents could find it difficult to defend those seats as their districts move to the left, including Representatives Mike Garcia, David Valadao and Michelle Steel. The changes could be particularly difficult for Garcia, who won by just over 300 votes in one of the contests closest to 2020, and Valadao, a moderate Republican who has long defied entry chances in his majority seat. Democrat of the Central Valley.
The seat of Democratic Representative Katie Porter in Orange County is getting slightly friendlier to give the progressive rising star and prolific fundraiser a boost. Second-term Democratic Representative Mike Levin was spurred on by last-minute changes in his San Diego district that kept him from moving sharply to the right.
The seat of Republican Representative Devin Nunes is set to become much more Democratic – a predicted result in the card projects that were scrapped shortly before Nunes announced his resignation to lead the media operation of former President Donald Trump. As the current post of Democratic Representative Josh Harder becomes more difficult, political observers predict that Harder will move to a newly created, more user-friendly seat.
Two longtime House Republicans, Reps Ken Calvert and Tom McClintock, could see their seats get tougher, but not necessarily enough to push them onto the battlefield.
Possible Democratic gains could be offset by the loss of a House seat by the state due to stagnant population growth. Representatives Lucille Roybal-Allard and Alan Lowenthal were drawn into a single shared seat in southern Los Angeles County, and both announced they would retire rather than be re-elected. It is likely that a Democrat will occupy the new, Long Beach-based seat.
“The big challenge for Democrats this cycle was going to be that the loss of a seat was almost certainly going to come from a Democratic zone,” Mitchell said.
The cards governing the state legislature, which were also approved on Monday, are likely to preserve the overwhelming majority of Democrats, which has for years exceeded the two-thirds qualified majority threshold. But they will also stimulate clashes between incumbents and incumbents, as many members are drawn to the same areas and state lawmakers, unlike House members, must live in their districts.
The only step left to enact the new card is for the commission to send it to the Secretary of State’s office, which must take place by December 27. primary is March 11.