Already reeling from the impact of the pandemic, supply chain disruption, and geopolitical trade disputes, many business leaders are preparing to face the biggest disruptor yet: climate change.

Since climate change is fundamentally geographical in nature, companies are beginning to adopt a geographical approach based on data science to understand where climate threats such as sea level rise, excessive heat and extreme weather conditions create operational vulnerabilities.

By visualizing layers of data on a map, business leaders can see the impact of complex events around the world on assets. In the context of climate change, visualization allows us to see precisely where and when damage could occur. We can then understand the scope and scale of potential damage, predict different scenarios and make sound decisions to reduce risk.

Using geographic information systems (GIS) software, organizations can see patterns and connections that would be lost in a spreadsheet.

A modern GIS can not only integrate and analyze diverse climate-related data sets, but it also puts the physical world at the heart of that analysis. Businesses can use it to understand the interconnectedness of Earth’s many systems, equipping them to become more resilient even as climate-induced changes begin to accelerate their impact on the business world. Just as the world has seen the power of map-based dashboards who followed COVIDcompanies are realizing that they need a map-based understanding of climate change threats to their assets.

How are companies already using GIS-powered models with climate? To simulate weather-related events and see when and or damage and loss are likely without intervention. With this information, planners can devise strategies to maintain operations and protect strategic assets.

“You need to have eyes on your entire system,” said Stephen Bourne, principal resiliency modeler, engineer and project manager at engineering, design and project management firm Atkins. In a recent podcastBourne called this approach a form of “sustainability.”

To do this effectively, companies today must be able to explore the dangers; assess the risk; explore possible solutions; and weigh the costs and benefits of each option. GIS simplifies this process by integrating these elements: we can map assets, analyze them, visualize them, engage them and take meaningful action, all from the same system.

“You need to identify all of the impacts of climate change that you’re likely to see,” Bourne said. “And then you have to simulate what’s going to happen to your system in the future. Just having this simulation in place means you’re measuring both phenomena, which I think is critical.

A port’s digital twin shows stress points

Such predictive models are in place at the Port of Prince Rupert, Canada’s third-busiest seaport and North America’s closest docks to Asia. Traffic to and from the port, which includes ships, railcars and trucks, has increased by more than 100% over the past decade, taking international freight to a record 32.4 million tonnes in 2020.

To provide crucial levels of transparency to decision makers across operations, the Bourne team produced a Double digital of the port as it will be in the future, depending on the expected growth and development. Port stakeholders incorporated proprietary data, as well as ratings on areas prone to high winds, temperature extremes or landslides. Next, Bourne’s team used GIS technology to simulate worst-case, median, or best-case scenarios that show how the stress points could withstand extreme weather or other incidents.

These visual and geographic presentations of data are powerful means of risk communication.

“We can simulate and quantify down to the person, neighborhood or individual building level – what is the impact we are looking at and how can we improve it?” said Bourne.

Strategic recovery of the city and prevention of future losses

In Fayetteville, North Carolina, a city closely tied to the US defense, generating recovery options was just as important as preventing future losses; The Atkins team used location intelligence from a GIS to address both of these concerns when 30 dams failed in 2018 during Hurricane Matthew.

As the storm moved through Cumberland County, traffic on the county’s transportation system came to a halt as bridges, roads and homes were inundated. The weather event threatened Fayetteville’s neighbor Fort Bragg, one of the largest military installations in the world. Fort Bragg is home to more than 52,000 active duty soldiers and 12,000 temporary duty reservists and students, as well as nearly 100,000 retired Army personnel and their family members.

In response, the Atkins team created two scenarios for recovery and preventing future loss. The least expensive idea, estimated at $55 million, was to shore up the bridges, which could reduce lost productivity and provide other benefits, Bourne explained in a recent presentation. Recognizing the potential for recurrent costs of this magnitude, planners distilled an important message from risk models: the need to invest in resilience. “Resilient cities recover faster after a disaster,” said Bourne, who explained that returning to the same level of prosperity that existed before an incident can take decades in less resilient operations.

Discover opportunities in data

A forecast based on a geographical approach integrating location intelligence also helped a major coffee producer identify expected supply chain shortfalls before climate change disruptions occur.

When company executives learned that arabica beans could be wiped out in some countries by 2050, they accelerated a program to promote sustainable cultivation practices among the thousands of farmers the company works with. work. This case now uses GIS to track program compliance. Dashboards allow customers and stakeholders to visualize business progress.

Companies in the service industry are also using location-based prediction to become more resilient. AT a large telecommunications company, weather-related repair and recovery costs reached more than $800 million across its vast network between 2016 and 2018. Subsequently, the company used GIS to predict which of its assets, cell towers at base stations, were most susceptible to flooding. As a result, new policies are emerging to prevent losses from multiplying and to minimize service interruptions.

Few industries are more risk-driven than insurance, and insurers are now using geo-enriched predictive modeling as a tool to protect against increasingly severe weather events.

Consider that in 2017, insurers paid out a record $135 billion around the world after hurricanes Maria and Harvey swept through parts of the United States and neighboring island nations. In the United States, total damage of $307 billion has been reported. Insurance companies now use GIS combined with imagery to respond to complaints, then anticipate more precisely where and when weather events may occur to adjust their rates accordingly.

In many organizations, more needs to be done to raise the level of operations resilience, Bourne said; it is a process that can invite innovation throughout the company.

“Assessing vulnerability helps [companies] build their knowledge and build their resilience as a result,” said Bourne, who adds that simply overcoming the challenges presented by climate change is not enough for today’s leaders. “Overcoming these challenges in the most cost effective way is what they are looking for.”

To learn more about how GIS and a geographic approach can help leaders manage climate change risk, visit esri.com/en-us/about/science/initiatives/weather-climate-science.